As China's emerging economic recovery of the initial signs of this recently become the world's third largest economy in the countries with the United States may make their own economic decoupling theory surfaced once again. This decoupling of the global economic downturn last fall had seemed foolish.
However, if China wants to slow down and truly global "decoupling", it will need to show that their growth is not dependent on exports. But in fact,Lots of China manufacturer depend on their export
Exports accounting for about China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 40%. A long time, economists have been exported around the astonishing expansion of China's economic role in the process of argument.
China's economic performance this year, including Thursday released the first quarter GDP data will help answer the question.
This is a crucial issue. Benefited from the positive government policies, China's economy is expected to rebound later this year. However, whether China will resume the 8% -9% per year growth trend, or a period of time in the face of relatively slow expansion, which will depend largely on how important exports.
One view was that the majority of China's economic growth in recent years by domestic demand rather than export-driven.
UBS (UBS) economist Jonathan Anderson (Jonathan Anderson) argues that only about 8% of the labor force actually employed in export industries, and even in China's peak period of trade expansion in recent years, net exports accounted for only economic about one-sixth of the increase. "Is by any standard, China's exports are affected by the smallest one of the Asian economies," he said.
Although China's overall export figures large, but some researchers believe that these figures grossly exaggerated the importance of the export sector, on the grounds that many of China's export assembly plants only in the parts manufactured at other locations.
One of the most notable example is Apple Computer (Apple) of the iPod. Last year, the University of California at Berkeley and Irvine (University of California at Berkeley and Irvine) The Economist published a very telling research papers, describing the manufacturing process of the iPod's economic added value. Although the products from the factory in China to reach 150 U.S. dollars at the prices, they estimated, of which only about 5% are actually created in China because of the key components are imported. In addition, the Chinese workers in the entire production process of the product by the total wages paid, with only about 2%.
"Assembled in China, products are likely to increase in value of only a few dollars at most," Greg Linden ,Jason Dedrick)and Kenneth Kraemer concluded.
Some researchers argue that the impact of exports is relatively small, is a 2001-02 breakdown of the global technology bubble, the Chinese only slightly affected by the reason.
However, since last fall as the Chinese economy and the deepening global crisis has worsened, those conclusions have been closely considered. According to some calculations the final quarter of China's GDP last year than the same ring.
It appears in a number of economists, with the technology bubble burst comparison is untenable. Since then, China's export machine has been rapid expansion in the share of GDP has doubled in general. As a result, the history of the model may be worthless. Even government officials also admitted that the Chinese economy and exports more closely the links between, it is lack of consensus.
The importance of the latest projections of export efforts to bring about some dramatic conclusions. Hong Kong Monetary Authority (Hong Kong Monetary Authority) and two of my colleagues Cui calendar using the provincial governments in Mainland China data, to calculate the export to the plant investment, employment and consumption, "spill-over effect."
They found that, in recent years, China's employment growth and a significant portion of investment from the export. They concluded that growth in exports for every 10 percentage point decline, GDP growth will drop 2.5 percentage points.
In view of China's export growth from the third quarter of 2008 grew 20% so far this year fell 20 percent to shrink, this is a very pessimistic conclusion. They said that the economic impact of weak exports, "than to consider only the direct impact of the export situation."
On China's worried about the external situation of the other reason is that there is still the country's huge current account surplus, GDP of close to 8%. Despite crisis, the first quarter of this year's surplus is still higher than the same period last year.
The short term, this fact will help push up the overall growth figures, as will the contribution of net exports. However, with the United States and other countries to narrow the trade deficit, some economists worry that China may still face a painful adjustment in the external accounts.
"Global impact has been to remove many of the world's macroeconomic imbalances," the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations (Council on Foreign Relations) Sezer of Brad (Brad Setser) said. "But China's trade surplus has continued to rise."
However, if China wants to slow down and truly global "decoupling", it will need to show that their growth is not dependent on exports. But in fact,Lots of China manufacturer depend on their export
Exports accounting for about China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 40%. A long time, economists have been exported around the astonishing expansion of China's economic role in the process of argument.
China's economic performance this year, including Thursday released the first quarter GDP data will help answer the question.
This is a crucial issue. Benefited from the positive government policies, China's economy is expected to rebound later this year. However, whether China will resume the 8% -9% per year growth trend, or a period of time in the face of relatively slow expansion, which will depend largely on how important exports.
One view was that the majority of China's economic growth in recent years by domestic demand rather than export-driven.
UBS (UBS) economist Jonathan Anderson (Jonathan Anderson) argues that only about 8% of the labor force actually employed in export industries, and even in China's peak period of trade expansion in recent years, net exports accounted for only economic about one-sixth of the increase. "Is by any standard, China's exports are affected by the smallest one of the Asian economies," he said.
Although China's overall export figures large, but some researchers believe that these figures grossly exaggerated the importance of the export sector, on the grounds that many of China's export assembly plants only in the parts manufactured at other locations.
One of the most notable example is Apple Computer (Apple) of the iPod. Last year, the University of California at Berkeley and Irvine (University of California at Berkeley and Irvine) The Economist published a very telling research papers, describing the manufacturing process of the iPod's economic added value. Although the products from the factory in China to reach 150 U.S. dollars at the prices, they estimated, of which only about 5% are actually created in China because of the key components are imported. In addition, the Chinese workers in the entire production process of the product by the total wages paid, with only about 2%.
"Assembled in China, products are likely to increase in value of only a few dollars at most," Greg Linden ,Jason Dedrick)and Kenneth Kraemer concluded.
Some researchers argue that the impact of exports is relatively small, is a 2001-02 breakdown of the global technology bubble, the Chinese only slightly affected by the reason.
However, since last fall as the Chinese economy and the deepening global crisis has worsened, those conclusions have been closely considered. According to some calculations the final quarter of China's GDP last year than the same ring.
It appears in a number of economists, with the technology bubble burst comparison is untenable. Since then, China's export machine has been rapid expansion in the share of GDP has doubled in general. As a result, the history of the model may be worthless. Even government officials also admitted that the Chinese economy and exports more closely the links between, it is lack of consensus.
The importance of the latest projections of export efforts to bring about some dramatic conclusions. Hong Kong Monetary Authority (Hong Kong Monetary Authority) and two of my colleagues Cui calendar using the provincial governments in Mainland China data, to calculate the export to the plant investment, employment and consumption, "spill-over effect."
They found that, in recent years, China's employment growth and a significant portion of investment from the export. They concluded that growth in exports for every 10 percentage point decline, GDP growth will drop 2.5 percentage points.
In view of China's export growth from the third quarter of 2008 grew 20% so far this year fell 20 percent to shrink, this is a very pessimistic conclusion. They said that the economic impact of weak exports, "than to consider only the direct impact of the export situation."
On China's worried about the external situation of the other reason is that there is still the country's huge current account surplus, GDP of close to 8%. Despite crisis, the first quarter of this year's surplus is still higher than the same period last year.
The short term, this fact will help push up the overall growth figures, as will the contribution of net exports. However, with the United States and other countries to narrow the trade deficit, some economists worry that China may still face a painful adjustment in the external accounts.
"Global impact has been to remove many of the world's macroeconomic imbalances," the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations (Council on Foreign Relations) Sezer of Brad (Brad Setser) said. "But China's trade surplus has continued to rise."
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